Szoboszlai leads the captaincy case as Liverpool host Forest

A compact Saturday slate offers several form-driven options, with Liverpool’s midfield and Hull’s defensive numbers standing out. Transfer uncertainty around Cody Gakpo and an injury flag for Newcastle’s Osula make team news particularly important before finalising squads.

Fixtures and the Matchday Read

Liverpool v Nott'm Forest — FDR 3/4: Liverpool have the strongest attacking indicators in the data. Szoboszlai leads all listed players for xGI at 1.12, while Isak has 1.10 despite only two points of form.
Bournemouth v Everton — FDR 3/3: Ndiaye combines a strong 0.56 xGI with the highest ownership among the listed Everton attackers at 16.1%. Dewsbury-Hall is the better form play, with 11.
Coventry City v Hull City — FDR 2/2: Hull supply the clearest budget route. Mendy has 15 form, Ajayi 14, and Tzolakis 10, although their attacking upside varies considerably.
Spurs v Newcastle — FDR 2/3: Wissa’s 1.02 xGI is a notable attacking figure, while Elanga offers a low-owned midfield option at just 2.0% ownership.

Captaincy

Szoboszlai is the leading captaincy choice. His 1.12 xGI is the highest in the pool, he is marked available and Liverpool are at home, although the fixture carries an FDR of 3.

Isak is the high-upside alternative, with almost identical xGI at 1.10 and a home fixture. His downside is clear: his form figure is only 2, so the data supports the underlying opportunity more than recent output.

Wissa is another viable differential captain at 1.02 xGI, but Newcastle face a Spurs side with an FDR of 2. Ndiaye offers a safer form-based route, though his 16.1% ownership limits the differential appeal.

Squad Recommendations

Start Szoboszlai: The combination of home advantage, availability and 1.12 xGI makes him the standout Liverpool midfielder.
Consider Isak: Keep or buy for the underlying numbers rather than form. His ownership is already 16.5%, so this is not a hidden option.
Add Ajayi or Mendy as budget defenders: Both are available and rank highly for form, with Ajayi offering the greater listed attacking threat at 0.52 xGI.
Consider Tzolakis for a budget goalkeeper: His form of 10 is the best among the listed goalkeepers, though goalkeeper points remain dependent on the match outcome.
Use Dewsbury-Hall as an Everton midfield option: His form of 11 is excellent, while Ndiaye has the stronger xGI and remains the more established ownership play.
Consider Wissa ahead of Osula: Wissa has 1.02 xGI and is available. Osula is flagged with a foot injury and has an unknown return date.

Opportunities

Ajayi is the clearest budget upside: He has 14 form, only 1.8% ownership and the highest defensive-player xGI listed at 0.52.
Tavernier is an attacking differential: His 0.48 xGI, form of 10 and ownership of 2.3% make him an attractive Bournemouth option.
Elanga offers low-owned exposure: The Newcastle midfielder has form of 9 but is owned by only 2.0% of managers.
Slater is a deeper Hull differential: His 0.44 xGI is strong for a midfielder with 3.8% ownership, although his form of 6 trails Hull’s leading defensive options.
Barry could be overlooked: The Everton forward has 0.54 xGI, form of 8 and just 3.1% ownership.

Risks

Gakpo’s minutes and role need monitoring. BBC Sport reports that Liverpool are close to a deal for Bradley Barcola, adding to doubts around Gakpo’s Anfield future. Gakpo is available and has 12 form, but the transfer situation creates selection uncertainty.
Liverpool’s midfield remains a wider concern. BBC Sport described the midfield as fragile after the draw at Newcastle, so Szoboszlai’s attacking numbers should not be treated as evidence of defensive security.
Isak’s form is poor: His xGI is elite among the supplied players, but his form of 2 is a material short-term warning.
Do not overcommit to Newcastle attackers against Spurs: Wissa’s xGI is strong, but the fixture is rated FDR 2/3 and his form is only 4.
Hackney is a late decision: He has a knock and a 75% chance of playing. Avoid relying on him without confirmed team news.
Ownership creates downside for Ndiaye and Szoboszlai: Both are relatively popular, at 16.1% and 43.2% respectively, so a blank could have a significant rank impact.

Final Watchlist

Szoboszlai — captaincy leader; 1.12 xGI, available.
Isak — high-upside Liverpool forward; 1.10 xGI but form 2.
Ajayi — standout budget defender; form 14, xGI 0.52.
Mendy — highest listed form among defenders at 15.
Tavernier — low-owned Bournemouth differential; 0.48 xGI.
Wissa — Newcastle attacking option; 1.02 xGI.
Gakpo — strong form, but monitor transfer-related uncertainty.
Osula and Hackney — avoid starting without late availability confirmation.