Transfer check
FPL transfer check: is he worth it, and who goes?
Name the player you're eyeing. We pull his projections, fixtures and fitness alongside every legal replacement in your squad, then a calibrated evaluation model gives you a probability, not a hunch.
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What FPL Transfer Check does
Most Fantasy Premier League transfer decisions come down to three questions: is this player actually an upgrade, is this the right week to move, and who leaves to make room? Transfer Check answers all three for a single move. Name the player you want in, give it your squad, and it returns a verdict with a probability attached rather than a generic tip.
The check works for any player in the game and any legal squad, whether you are chasing a differential before a fixture swing or deciding if a popular pick is worth a hit.
How the verdict is calculated
- Build the picture. We pull the target's projected points per game, recent form, expected goal involvement, minutes and nailedness, injury status and news, plus weighted fixture difficulty over the next 5 gameweeks. The same data is gathered for every player in your squad who could legally be replaced: same position, affordable with your bank, and within the three-per-club limit.
- Ask three questions. A calibrated evaluation model judges the transfer on that evidence. Worth it is the probability the move improves expected points over the horizon, net of any 4-point hit. Timing is one of 5 levels from “Never” to “Even for a hit”. Who goes ranks the outgoing candidates by weakest outlook: low projection, hard fixtures, rotation or injury risk, bench role.
- Show the working. The verdict comes with the numbers behind it, so you can see whether a “worth it” is a comfortable 80% or a coin-flip 52%.
Example: is a premium midfielder worth a hit?
Say you want a £10.5m midfielder with three home games coming, you have one free transfer and £0.3m in the bank. Transfer Check finds the midfielders in your squad you could sell to afford him, compares each one's projection over the next 5 gameweeks with the target's, and weighs the gap against the 4-point cost of a second transfer. If the gain only shows up after the fixture swing, the timing verdict will say “Next gameweek” rather than telling you to take the hit now.
Frequently asked questions
- Is FPL Transfer Check free?
- Yes. Transfer Check is free with a free FPL Pulse account.
- How is the verdict calculated?
- Transfer Check builds a snapshot of the target player, your squad and your budget from live Fantasy Premier League data, then a calibrated evaluation model answers three questions: is the transfer worth it over the next 5 gameweeks, when should you make it, and who should make way. The answers are probabilities, so a 55% "worth it" means it is genuinely marginal.
- Does it account for a -4 hit?
- Yes. The model knows how many free transfers you have and that each extra transfer costs 4 points. It only recommends taking a hit when the expected gain over the horizon clearly covers it.
- Which players can it suggest transferring out?
- Only legal swaps: the same position as the target, affordable with your bank after selling, and staying within the three-players-per-club limit. Captains and nailed high scorers are protected unless every alternative is worse.
- Do I need to enter my whole squad?
- You can type your 15 players manually, or sign in and pick a saved team so your 15 players are filled in; you still enter your bank and free transfers.