FPL Matchday Preview: Haaland leads a difficult Anfield captaincy call

A three-match slate brings a pair of moderate-difficulty fixtures and a high-profile Liverpool–Man City meeting, with injuries making several popular picks less secure.

The fixture picture

Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest and Hull City v Everton are both rated 3/3 and 3/2 respectively by the Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR). They offer the clearest route to defensive points, although the attacking data points to several useful differentials.

Liverpool v Man City is rated 4/4, making it the toughest fixture on paper. That should temper expectations for defenders, but the underlying attacking numbers remain strong enough to keep premium forwards and midfielders in consideration.

Everton’s trip to Hull stands out defensively: Tarkowski has 11 form, 18.2% ownership and a 0.22 xGI, while Pickford offers a more established route to save and clean-sheet points at 9.2% ownership. Branthwaite and Maitland-Niles are lower-owned alternatives, although their form is less compelling.

Captaincy: Haaland remains the leading option

Haaland is the clearest captaincy candidate on the available numbers. His 4.95 xGI is comfortably the highest in the player data and he is marked available, despite Man City facing a difficult away fixture. His 74.1% ownership also makes passing on him a high-risk decision in a short slate.

Liverpool’s Isak has 3.62 xGI but is flagged injured with a thigh problem and no known return date. He should not be treated as a reliable captaincy option until his availability is clarified. Gibbs-White offers a lower-owned alternative: 2.98 xGI and 15.8% ownership, although Forest face a Palace side in a fixture rated 3/3.

Cherki’s 2.26 xGI is notable, but his 28.6% ownership and 4.5 form make him a less convincing captain than Haaland. Szoboszlai combines 2.24 xGI with 31% ownership, yet Liverpool’s FDR 4 fixture also carries a meaningful downside.

Squad actions for this matchday

Prioritise Haaland if selecting a captain: his xGI and availability lead the slate, even with the difficult fixture.
Check Isak before the deadline: with an injury status marked “i” and an unknown return date, selling, benching or replacing him is more defensible than assuming he will start.
Monitor Semenyo closely: he has 1.49 xGI and 10 form, but is doubtful with an ankle injury and only a 75% chance of playing. Have a playing substitute or a confirmed alternative ready.
Consider Everton defenders: Tarkowski is the standout on form, while Pickford provides a safer-looking goalkeeper route. Mykolenko also has an injury flag and a 75% chance of playing, so avoid relying on him without a viable bench option.
Use low-owned attackers selectively: Belloumi has 1.15 xGI, 8.5 form and 5.8% ownership, while Kamada has 0.85 xGI at just 0.5% ownership. Both carry the normal rotation and fixture risks of differential picks.

Differential opportunities and defensive risks

Belloumi is one of the more attractive value signals in the data: his 8.5 form ranks highly among the listed players, while his ownership remains below 6%. Cho has the same 1.15 xGI at zero ownership, but his 3.5 form makes him a more speculative punt. Hull forward McBurnie also has 1.36 xGI, though his 2.5 form provides little evidence of immediate reliability.

Crystal Palace offer intriguing low-owned attacking numbers. Khalaili has 1.29 xGI at 0.3% ownership and Mitchell has 1.03 xGI at 6.1%, while Kamada combines 0.85 xGI with minimal ownership. These figures create upside, but none has the ownership or form profile of a safe mainstream pick.

Liverpool and Man City defenders need careful handling. Gvardiol has 0.96 xGI and 7.5 form, while Virgil has 8 form and 0.33 xGI, but the FDR 4/4 fixture reduces clean-sheet confidence. Guéhi’s 1.34 xGI is unusually high for a defender, although his form is only 5; that makes him an attacking-differential play rather than a dependable defensive selection.

News and final checks

The Liverpool–Man City match is taking place amid significant off-field attention. BBC Sport reports that Manchester City were found guilty of breaching the majority of the 115 charges brought by the Premier League, while BBC coverage says a strong reception is expected for City at Anfield. Those developments may shape the atmosphere, but they do not provide a reliable FPL prediction and should not replace player data when making transfers or captaincy decisions.

The key deadline risks are therefore practical: confirm the latest update on Isak, check whether Semenyo and Mykolenko are cleared to play, and ensure any doubtful player has a playing substitute. In a three-match round, avoiding a one-point appearance risk can be as valuable as chasing an unlikely differential haul.